While the projected monthly volume remains familiar, retail
sales levels reflect sustained advances.
On an unadjusted volume level, November 2024 US auto sales are
expected to reach 1.31 million units, a growth of 6% from the
year-ago level. This would translate to a seasonally adjusted rate
(SAAR) of 15.9 million units, on trend with the 16.0 million unit
mark realized in October.
“Retail sales are showing sustained progress in November, aided
by a combination of rising inventory, the beginning of year-end
clearance promotional activity, and quite possibly relief from
lower interest rates,” said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“The overall pace of sales would be relatively unchanged from the
previous month, but advancing consumer demand could signal some
easing of affordability issues.”
New inventory data also indicates that auto sales could indeed
provide a happy holiday season.
According to S&P Global Mobility
retail advertised inventory data, at the end of October 2024,
available retail advertised inventory in the US was 3.06 million
vehicles, a slight 0.2% increase over September. “This marks the
second consecutive month of new vehicle inventory being over three
million units, which is a high since the pandemic,” said
Matt Trommer, associate director at S&P Global
Mobility.
According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data,
battery electric vehicle (BEV) share of sales has been above 8%
every month since June, reflecting progress from levels earlier in
the year. BEV share in September reached a level of 8.6%, with
October estimated to have remained above 8% again. Despite lower
inventory levels for many EVs, November and December could realize
BEV share advances in anticipation of Federal EV incentives being
withdrawn in 2025. S&P Global Mobility projects November BEV
share to reach a level of 8.7%.
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