Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals,
registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date,
short-term production forecast available.
Here's a closer look at global production data by region and our
updated January production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month
As we enter 2025, the global auto industry presents a landscape
of mixed opportunities and challenges. Market dynamics are
influenced by varying demand levels, regulatory changes, and
geopolitical factors. The propulsion mix is evolving, with some
regions experiencing slower electric vehicle (EV) adoption while
others show promising growth. The incoming Trump administration's
anticipated revisions to US emissions standards are expected to
significantly impact battery electric vehicle (BEV) production and
market share.
Regional Highlights
Europe: The light vehicle production outlook
for Europe has been adjusted upward by 34,000 units for 2025 and
47,000 units for 2026, while also reflecting a positive adjustment
of 86,000 units for 2024. This growth is driven by strong
performances from manufacturers like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and
Toyota, particularly in the ICE segment. However, a projected
decline of 10.5% year-on-year in Q4-2024 output indicates ongoing
challenges, with an overall expected decrease of 3.0% in 2025
before a modest recovery in 2026.
Greater China: Greater China's light vehicle
production outlook has been increased by 319,000 units for 2025,
buoyed by robust domestic demand and scrappage incentives. December
2024 saw a year-over-year growth of 9%, with new energy vehicles
(NEVs) capturing over 50% market share in H2-2024. The government's
scrappage subsidy extension is expected to further support
production growth, leading to an anticipated total output of 30.1
million units in 2024, representing a 3.8% increase from the
previous year.
Japan/Korea: Japan's short-term production
forecast has been reduced by approximately 30,000 units annually
due to expected US tariff impacts on US domestic demand.
Conversely, the long-term outlook has been upgraded by 140,000
units, driven by anticipated stronger demand for ICE models in the
US. South Korea's production forecast for 2025 has been lowered by
about 20,000 units, reflecting local demand challenges stemming
from recent political instability.
North America: The North American light vehicle
production outlook has seen a slight increase of 7,000 units for
2025 and 2026. The market remains stable but is subject to
uncertainties due to the incoming administration's policies and
inflationary pressures. Significant reductions in BEV production
forecasts highlight a shift towards ICE vehicles, with over 1.7
million units of dedicated BEV nameplate production removed from
projections through 2032.
South America: The South American light vehicle
production outlook has been slightly decreased by 2,000 units for
2025 and 9,000 units for 2026, with a minor increase of 2,000 units
for 2027. Overall, the production landscape appears stable, with
adjustments primarily reflecting demand changes. Long-term
forecasts indicate a modest downward revision of 1.1% in production
volumes, aligning with evolving market demand.
South Asia: The outlook for South Asia has been
raised by 70,000 units for 2025, driven by positive developments in
the Indian market, particularly for EVs. However, challenges
persist in the ASEAN region due to stricter auto loan policies and
a sluggish market in Indonesia. The overall ASEAN production
forecast reflects ongoing economic uncertainties and trade
tensions, with a slight downgrade for 2026 as recovery may take
longer than expected.
Download a free light vehicle
production forecast here.
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