Formula 1 returns to the iconic Spa-Francorchamps for the Belgian Grand Prix, on a weekend that will see the Sprint make its third appearance of the season. But who might emerge triumphant at Round 13? Here are what the odds tell us…
Odds are provided by F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
Team mates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have notched up 20 podiums and nine wins in the first 12 rounds. The Australian has the best overall finishing average on the grid of 2.58, finishing every race on the calendar, and leads the series from his colleague. However, Norris is the in-form driver, with three triumphs in his last five starts.
Lewis Hamilton is a five-time victor at Spa, but his last win was bittersweet. He was promoted to the top spot at the expense of team mate George Russell in 2024, the latter disqualified for an underweight car. While three-time winner Max Verstappen can’t be ruled out, he is still enduring braking issues and challenges with oversteer and understeer this season, which makes him too unpredictable to tip this weekend.
The odds for a podium finish
The McLaren duo and the two defending champions aside, George Russell always threatens the top three positions. The Briton has sprayed champagne five times this year, including once as a winner, averaging 4.92. Despite his success in Canada, his average has risen to 6.20 over the previous five rounds.
Nico Hulkenberg surprised many with his top three at Silverstone, but Spa is the type of track where the German could pull it off again. No driver has won the Grand Prix starting from pole at Spa since 2021, showing that anything can happen.
The odds for a top-six finish
Pierre Gasly joined the ‘top six’ club for the first time this campaign after a hard-fought drive in the British Grand Prix. The result handed Alpine their single biggest haul of points in a round, despite his team mate’s car failing to start the race.
Alex Albon will start in Belgium off the back of an eighth place return last time out, helping him terminate a three-race DNF streak. The Thai driver is a three-time top-six performer this year, averaging 7.67 in the nine races he’s completed.
The odds for a top-10 finish
Removing the obvious favourites from the conversation points us towards multiple value-for-money opportunities. First up is Fernando Alonso, who has crossed the line inside the top 10 in the previous four Grands Prix. The Spaniard has finished nine races on the calendar, averaging 10.56.
Isack Hadjar, Esteban Ocon and Carlos Sainz are tied on five top 10s apiece. Ocon made the top 10 cut twice in the previous three rounds, while Sainz last produced the goods in Canada. Hadjar has to go back to Barcelona to recount his previous top 10.
The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying
The fastest qualifier has proven irrelevant in the last three editions. Hamilton prevailed on his last trip around Spa from third place, and Verstappen the previous two, from sixth and 14th, respectively. Ferrari have put a driver at the head of the pack in all three of the last races and walked away empty-handed.
Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri are joint leaders in Qualifying with four pole positions each in 2025 followed by Lando Norris on three. George Russell is the only other driver to stop the clock the fastest in Qualifying, back in Montreal.
The odds for the winning team
Red Bull have bagged the spoils in three of the previous seven trips to Belgium. The Milton Keynes establishment lifted the trophy courtesy of Verstappen between 2021 and 2023. However, Mercedes put a stop to their dominance thanks to Lewis Hamilton in 2024.
McLaren haven’t featured in the conversation of this race in recent years, but that changed last year when Piastri claimed runner-up. In addition, the Woking outfit have lifted the constructor trophy in 75% of events this year. They are undoubtedly the team to topple in Belgium.
The odds for the Sprint
Spa-Francorchamps marks the midway point for the 2025 F1 Sprint season. After two races, Ferrari and McLaren each have a scalp, thanks to Hamilton in Shanghai and Norris in Miami.
Despite his struggles in the big races, the seven-time World Champion has started the Sprint season strong, taking podiums in both outings and averaging 2.00. His average is the best on the grid, along with Piastri, who played the role of bridesmaid in both Sprints.
