There was huge excitement and anticipation after the Las Vegas Grand Prix, with the disqualification of both McLaren cars bringing Max Verstappen closer to the championship lead and increasing the changes of a final race showdown.
I’ll admit I was one of those energized by the idea of a three-way fight in Abu Dhabi and the additional jeopardy injected into the Qatar race weekend as Formula 1 tackles a brutal tripleheader to end the season. I’ll also admit I was probably slightly carried away at first, because in reality Lando Norris still had – and has – a huge opportunity to become world champion on Sunday night here.
Norris did the first part of the job he had to do, securing third place in the Sprint. A top-seven finish would have been enough, as those points guarantee the title remains fully in his own hands this weekend. Win the Qatar Grand Prix, and Norris is champion.
I was fortunate enough to interview Norris walking to his car before the Sprint, and asked him about those permutations and the fact he didn’t have to go forward in the shorter race to set up the title chance. The pause he took before responding felt like an eternity, as if he was computing the scenario before pushing it back out of his mind, stating he was solely focused on making a good start – an attitude Norris is maintaining as he lines up in second place on Sunday, needing one spot to guarantee the championship for himself.
“The long run down to Turn 1 is a good opportunity for anyone to gain or lose positions,” Norris said. “Apart from that, I think it’s going to be a pretty boring and straightforward race.
“[My approach is] the same as every day. I’m second, so not a whole chance for me to win at the minute, but I just focus on trying to get a good start. That’s all.”
Oscar Piastri also did the first part of the job that he has to do, too, and is the driver Norris needs to overtake if he is to win.
Piastri entered the weekend 24 points adrift and is seemingly the largest outsider in the title picture, because he hasn’t had a top-three finish in any race or Sprint since the end of the European season. He’s not outscored Norris in any session since Zandvoort, and momentum did not appear to be on his side.
Yet from the start of FP1 he has appeared comfortable with the McLaren, turning Sprint pole into a third consecutive Sprint victory at the Lusail circuit, before following that with his first pole since the end of August.
“Everything felt great all weekend,” Piastri said. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It was really good. The team did a great job. Had a little bit of a question mark on which tires we wanted to use because I did a quick lap on the used set in Q2, and that threw a little bit of a spanner in the works because we didn’t expect it to be so good. But Q3 was really good on the new set, so very happy.
“I’ll try my best starting from the best spot – try and do some more of what I did today in the Sprint and see what we can do.”
Like Norris, Piastri knows the most crucial part of the race is likely to be the first 10 seconds – the launch he gets off the line to try and maintain his lead into Turn 1.
“I think the start is probably the biggest thing I need to get right,” he said. “I think we saw today with clean air, it’s a massive advantage around here. With the stint lengths, I think it’s going to be a pretty fast-paced race, so that’s probably the biggest thing to get right. Still, a lot can happen.”
Perhaps playing into Piastri’s hands, however, is the 360-degree view Norris needs to take – not just figuratively as championship leader with arguably the most to lose, but literally with the cars directly in front and behind him.
Norris’ teammate is the carrot he can see dangling in front of him, just one car to pass to become world champion. Looming large in his mirrors, though, is Max Verstappen, who has to outscore Norris to take his own title hopes down to the final round.
“We’ll try everything we can,” Verstappen said. “Start, Turn 1, all the laps…”
Row two. Never discount the tenacity coming from behind McLaren’s front row lockout. He’s always there. Clive Mason/Getty Images
Maybe a typical Verstappen answer attempting to bluntly and directly respond to the importance of the opening corner, but you know the defending champion won’t give up without a fight at any stage of the race. While Verstappen does appear to have a more competitive car at his disposal after improvements since Friday, he is also fully aware that the opening lap provides his best chance to jump Norris and keep his title ambitions alive.
“It will be tough,” the Dutchman said. “I mean, in the Sprint as well, I tried, but then we just fall into that window where we just struggle a lot on the tires and we don’t seem to really be able to keep up. Also, the final laps of Oscar in the Sprint, I need to cut a corner to do that, so it will be maybe a little bit better, but it will be tough, I think. Let’s see. It’s a long race. Anything can happen.
“You never know what happens in the race. Today, the Sprint was pretty boring, I would say, because you just can’t follow – tires overheat. Plus, with all these high-speed corners and high grip as well, it’s just super tough to get close.
“Tomorrow, there’s a lot more fuel in the car. The start is important, but then you never know. It can also be influenced by other cars in the race that might ruin your own race. It’s impossible to say now that it’s going to be boring tomorrow.”
Nobody is saying it will be boring. The tension of the situation, tires that require a maximum stint length and track limits that can result in penalties all mean the drivers are unlikely to be able to relax at any stage.
But there is every chance the first lap will be race-defining, and with that, championship-defining, too.
